The Perfect Storm: Why Your Orange Juice is So Expensive Right Now

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By: Varris Holmes, Marketing Manager

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In this article, you will learn about:

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The reasons for continued price increase for orange juice

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How major producing countries are trying to keep up with demand

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What the future holds for orange juice production

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The Price of Orange Juice Concentrate has Skyrocketed a Staggering 270% SINCE 2020

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FLORIDA

Florida, the sunshine state and America’s orange haven, has been particularly hard-hit. A brutal one-two punch from Hurricanes Irma and Ian in 2022 devastated crops. As if that wasn’t enough, a surprise freeze in January 2023 further hampered production. But the biggest culprit is a silent enemy: citrus greening, a bacterial disease spread by the Asian citrus psyllid insect. This insidious disease weakens trees and produces bitter, unusable fruit.

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The impact has been undeniable. Florida’s orange harvest in the 2022-23 season was the smallest in nearly a century, with a yield of only 713,000 tons for the 2022-2023 season. This represents a whopping 33% decline compared to the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

FORECAST FOR CURRENT SEASON IS POSITIVE

For the 2023-24 season, favorable weather conditions are expected to boost Florida’s production by nearly 30%, aiding the sector’s recovery from the impact of Hurricane Ian last season, while California’s output is projected to increase by 6%. Overall, U.S. production is forecast to increase by 280,000 metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons, while orange juice production is also set to grow by nearly 30% to 110,000 metric tons. Orange harvesting occurs in October through June.

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The Continuing Adversities for the Global Producers

MEXICO & BRAZIL

The problem stretches far beyond Florida’s borders. Brazil, the world’s leading orange juice producer, and Mexico, number three on the list, are facing similar challenges as the U.S. Citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions have significantly impacted their harvests as well.

Production Challenges:

Although the 2023/24 Brazilian orange harvest is forecast to be average, there are some concerns. Fundecitrus, a citrus industry association, predicts a slight decrease (2.2%) compared to the previous season. This decline can be attributed to several factors, including:

• Excessive Rainfall:
Above-average rainfall led to an increase in blossom-end rot, a fungal disease that affects developing fruit.

• Biennial Bearing Cycle:
Citrus trees naturally alternate between heavy and light production years. While not all regions are affected, the “off” year for some late varieties contributed to the lower forecast.

• Greening’s Grip:
The ongoing battle against citrus greening continues to take its toll, reducing overall fruit production.

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“Mexico experienced an unusually dry season,” explains Luis Ribera, an economist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. “This lack of rain further hampered their already struggling orange production.”

Unlike other recent price spikes, such as the surge in egg prices due to avian flu, orange juice relief isn’t coming anytime soon. Unlike chickens, which can be quickly restocked, orange trees take years to mature and reach peak production.

“Brazil, where roughly 80% of the orange juice we consume comes from, predicts it will take several years to recover,” says Ribera. “Their production will likely remain low for at least the next year.”

Hopes for a Crop Disease Antidote

However, a glimmer of hope exists. Researchers are actively seeking solutions, particularly for citrus greening. Purdue University recently received a significant grant to develop a plant drug delivery system to combat the disease. Additionally, producers are exploring alternative methods like fumigation, planting resistant orange varieties, and even gene editing.

“While a definitive solution hasn’t been found yet,” says Ribera, “growers are taking steps to mitigate the damage. This includes increased fertilization and more frequent fumigation to manage the disease.”

For orange juice fans feeling the pinch at the checkout, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Ribera anticipates prices gradually decreasing over the next few years. “Producers with the resources will likely invest heavily in their groves,” he explains. “This should lead to a significant improvement in production within a couple of years.”

Consumer behavior might also play a role in lowering prices. As orange juice becomes more expensive, demand is likely to decrease, putting downward pressure on prices.

So, while your morning OJ might cost a bit more for now, the future looks a little brighter. With continued research and investment, a return to pre-crisis orange juice prices and sunny Florida groves is hopefully on the horizon.

Global Supply & Demand

Demand Outpaces Supply:
Despite an average orange harvest in Brazil for the 2023/24 season, global demand for orange juice, particularly in the United States, continues to outstrip supply. Years of battling citrus greening (Citrus huanglongbing, or HLB) have significantly reduced U.S. orange production, leaving them reliant on imports to meet their juice needs. This heavy reliance on Brazil, coupled with low starting orange juice stocks globally, drove up prices for Brazilian processors. In fact, November 2023 saw record high prices paid to Brazilian orange producers for fruit destined for juice processing, according to Cepea (Centro de Estudos em Planejamento Agrícola – Center for Agricultural Planning Studies).

Low Stocks Raise Global Concerns:
While the Brazilian harvest might be average, it’s still not enough to meet the international demand for orange juice, especially considering the critically low global stock levels. According to CitrusBR, orange juice stocks hit a 12-year low at the end of the 2022/23 season, down a staggering 40.7% compared to the previous year. These low reserves have raised serious concerns about the global orange juice supply in the coming months.

The Future of Orange Juice

While Brazilian orange farmers enjoyed a profitable year in 2023, the future of orange juice prices remains uncertain. The path forward depends on several factors, including:

• U.S. Orange Production Recovery: If U.S. orange production rebounds from the impacts of citrus greening, it could ease some pressure on the global market and potentially bring down prices.

• Brazilian Orange Harvest Management: Effective management of factors like blossom-end rot and the ongoing battle against greening will be crucial to ensure consistent and robust harvests in Brazil.

• Consumer Demand: As orange juice prices rise, consumer demand might eventually decrease, potentially leading to a price correction.

Only time will tell how these factors will play out, but one thing is clear: The global orange juice market is facing a period of uncertainty due to a complex interplay of supply and demand.

Sources:

http://www.juicemarket.info/
https://citrusindustry.net/
https://www.floridacitrus.org/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
https://www.usda.gov/

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